Darvas Box Breakout Signal Scanner & Historical Research

Based on our live dataset, volume-confirmed Darvas Box breakouts across 219 symbols produced a 67.5% hit rate in the 07.2026-06.2027 (to date) period, across 80 trades. The system continues to generate actionable signals, though performance varies by market regime.

Across 9481 signals in our dataset, boxes aged 3-5 days have historically produced the strongest results: a 78.7% hit rate and an average P30 return of 1.94%. Very old boxes (60+ days) show significantly weaker outcomes.

In the classic Darvas method, the box top and the box bottom are each confirmed after three consecutive days without a new high or a new low. This scanner uses 2 sessions for both, so boxes are identified slightly earlier. A box must be at least 3 trading days old before a breakout counts as a signal. All statistics on this site are based on these settings.

Across 9481 volume-confirmed breakouts since 1995, 73.9% reached the first target before the stop loss and 52.4% reached the second target before the stop loss. 26.1% hit the stop loss first. A target counts only if it was reached before the stop: a signal that was stopped out and only later rose to the target is a loss for anyone who used the stop, and is counted as a stop loss here. By year, the hit rate ranged from 63.4% to 79.9%. A high hit rate is not the same as a high return: the average return 30 trading days after a signal is 2.64%.

As of 2026-10-24, the symbols with the highest average 30-day return after a breakout are CLSK, MSTR, SMCI. Grade A symbols show an average hit rate of 75.2% compared to 73.4% for Grade D symbols, a gap of 1.8 percentage points.

HT1 is the first price target above the breakout level. HT2 is the second, higher target representing full trend continuation. In our dataset, 73.9% of all signals reached HT1. Of those, 70.9% continued to HT2.

The weakest period in our dataset was 07.2011-06.2012 with a hit rate of 63.4% across 246 trades. The strongest period was 07.2010-06.2011 with 79.9%.

A Grade A classification means a symbol has demonstrated the strongest historical response to the Darvas Box system over the most recent five years. As of 2026-10-24, 43 of the 219 tracked symbols carry a Grade A rating, with a five-year average hit rate of 75.2% and a average P30 return return of 4.35%.

Our universe includes 60 ETFs alongside individual stocks. ETFs show an average hit rate of 70.3%, compared to 74.9% for individual stocks. Sector ETFs with strong directional momentum have historically produced clean Darvas setups.

The site shows the breakout signal as it is: box, volume, grade, targets and stop. It does not look at the surroundings of a trade. Before I enter a breakout myself, I check three things. First the sector ETF: how the sector of the stock is trending. A single breakout in a sector that is falling hard has the market against it, and I do not have to take every signal. Second the sector leaders: if the ETF is still negative but two or three of the leading stocks in the sector have already turned up, that is a go for me as well. Third the calendar: whether an earnings report is due within the next days, because earnings can move the price through the stop or the target overnight. Whether and when to enter remains each reader's own decision.

In the last 12 months, since 2025-10-23, the tracked universe produced 441 volume-confirmed breakouts. The sectors with the most breakouts that reached the first target were Technology (69 of 103 reached HT1), Industrials (66 of 96 reached HT1), Commodities (46 of 61 reached HT1). Across all sectors, 299 breakouts reached HT1 and 211 reached HT2. The table "Where Darvas breakouts work right now" shows every sector and theme and is recalculated nightly.

Of the 2478 stop-loss outcomes in our dataset, the average loss at P20 was -8.19%. 50.4% of stop losses were triggered within the first 10 trading days - failed breakouts tend to fail quickly.

The site tracks a curated universe of 219 US stocks and ETFs - deliberately focused on liquid, actively traded symbols with sufficient price history for statistically meaningful analysis. This universe is reviewed periodically and updated as needed..

End-of-day price data is collected after midnight UTC following US market close. All signals, grades, and statistics are then recalculated automatically. The last full recalculation was completed on 2026-10-24 at 05:50 UTC.

darvastracker.com is an independent research tool built and maintained by a private trader with over 35 years of experience in financial markets and market data infrastructure. Not affiliated with any broker, data vendor, or financial institution.

End-of-day OHLCV price data (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) is sourced from publicly available market data providers including Yahoo Finance and other free data sources. Darvas Box signal detection, grade classification, and historical statistics are computed independently using proprietary algorithms. No AI is used in signal generation - all rules are deterministic and fully documented above. End-of-day data is collected and processed after midnight UTC, following US market close.

Disclaimer: Nothing on this site constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves risk.

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